Kushner’s ‘plan’ for Israel and Palestine

5 min readFeb 2, 2020

Downstream Ramifications

Scott Burchill

The illegal and unjust nature of the Kushner ‘plan’ for resolving the Israel-Palestine conflict has been widely canvassed and analysed.[i] Much less has been said about the ramifications of the announcement. There are five significant points to note.

1) Kushner’s ‘plan’ unites, at least temporarily, the main Palestinian factions — Hamas & Fatah — in opposition to Israel-US proposals which explicitly excluded Palestinian participation and were clearly not designed to bring peace but to provide diplomatic and legal cover, legitimacy and support for the further colonisation of Palestinian lands. It seeks to turn the de facto status quo into a de jure reality: to make “facts on the ground” irreversible.

Neither the US or Israel want a Hamas-Fatah rapprochement, though they must have realised it was possible. The ‘deal’ makes Israel’s old divide and rule strategy in the occupied territories more difficult to sustain and effectively forces Fatah closer to the approach of Hamas — at least publicly. Israel has long feared a Fatah-Hamas unity ticket: Kushner’s plan requires Fatah to disarm its rival and police the Gaza strip, which will not happen. [ii]

Fatah’s leadership, especially Mahmood Abbas, is ageing, corrupt and increasing unpopular. It has been the prime obstacle to regeneration, sidelining BDS architect Marwan Barghouti, failing to embrace rivals such as his cousin, the PNI’s Mustafa Barghouti and the PFLP’s Ahmad Sa’adat. Take away their property portfolios and Vichy bank accounts, what is left? Incredibly, the PA nomenklatura (as Amira Hass perspicaciously calls them) has no plan of any kind to either preserve their bourgeois lifestyles or respond to Trump’s steal of the century. They have become increasingly irrelevant to those they are supposed to represent, and even less effective collaborators for Israel.

2) The unanimous rejection of the ‘plan’ by the Arab League will also have disappointed Washington, especially when they managed to get foreign ministers from the UAE, Bahrain and Oman to the announcement.[iii] The Saudis appear to have reversed some of their initial enthusiasm and Egypt seems to have become lukewarm about it: though neither want to burn their bridges with Washington for other reasons. Despite being tyrannical dictatorships, and having lost interest in the Palestinian cause years ago, Arab elites are nonetheless conscious of popular support for Palestine (and hostility to Israel) amongst their populations. And they do not want to be displaced by leadership from Iran, which has been consistent and far more principled on the issue.

3) The PA has terminated all contact with Israel and the United States, at least for the moment. The most important aspect of this is the withdrawal of security co-operation in the West Bank, forcing Israel to police the occupation in Arab villages they don’t want to enter. Until now this has been subcontracted to PA security forces who will be reluctant to see their jobs disappear.

Despite lots of initial noise and scattered protests, security co-operation by the PA is likely to continue. However, if it doesn’t and formal annexation proceeds, there will be more territory to police and more hostile Palestinians to subdue, not an enticing prospect for 19 year old IDF draftees. Despite what Hass calls the “delusions of armed struggle”, a third, much wider and less predictable intifada seems likely, as Palestinians increasingly realise there will be no end to Israel’s settler colonialism and apartheid system without violent resistance: diplomacy was a trick and a dead end. When people have nothing left to lose and feel increasingly scorned and isolated, they often behave in an extreme manner.[iv]

4) The ‘plan’ shores up Christian evangelical support for Trump in the lead up to the November presidential vote in the US. It also helps Netanyahu fudge scrutiny of his indictment on corruption charges before the next election in Israel on 2 March, while winning back religious fanatics in the settler movement from fringe parties on the right: only a new coalition government can save Netanyahu’s political future.

Initial opinion polls suggest Netanyahu has received almost no bounce from the ‘plan’ and there remains some dispute between the US and Israeli governments over when formal annexation will commence: almost certainly after 2 March. Israeli opposition leader Benny Gantz also went to Washington for the launch but received no credit or publicity, despite endorsing Kushner’s proposals.[v]

5) Traditionally the Democratic Party in the US receives considerably more support from American Jews than the Republicans. Kushner’s ‘plan’ has split them: Sanders and Warren are opposed, Biden and Buttigieg want to have it both ways, while the Clintonites are more supportive of the extreme right in Israel. These divisions will become more stark from the Iowa caucuses onwards.

If Bernie Sanders becomes the frontrunner, the Israel lobby will mobilise strongly against him as they did to Jeremy Corbyn in the UK. Because Sanders is Jewish, it won’t be as easy to demonise him as antisemitic. That won’t discourage AIPAC, Alan Dershowitz and others from arguing that only fidelity to the most extreme right wing Trump-Netanyahu agenda will immunise whomever the Democrats preselect from charges of racism and Jew hatred.[vi]

[i] For general analysis of Kushner’s proposal, see:

https://www.dw.com/en/arab-league-rejects-trumps-israeli-palestinian-peace-plan/a-52225651?maca=en-Twitter-sharing

https://mondoweiss.net/2020/01/the-deal-of-the-century-is-apartheid/

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/31/trump-peace-plan-israel-palestine-middle-east/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/31/world/middleeast/trump-mideast-plan-jerusalem.html

https://www.middleeasteye.net/opinion/palestinians-have-indeed-missed-opportunity-surrender-zionism

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/jan/30/trump-israel-palestinian-peace-plan-is-beyond-insulting-thats-deliberate?CMP=share_btn_tw

https://www.juancole.com/2020/01/netanyahu-torpedo-criminal.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

http://arabcenterdc.org/policy_analyses/steal-of-the-century-two-double-dealers-and-a-podium/

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/29/opinion/trump-peace-plan.html

https://www.thenational.ae/opinion/comment/donald-trump-s-middle-east-peace-plan-will-not-bring-peace-the-us-and-israel-know-this-1.971616

https://www.juancole.com/2020/01/palestinians-against-humanity.html