Putin plans for retirement?
Scott Burchill
The image of Putin as an unchallengeable authoritarian strongman is simplistic & misleading. He holds power by maintaining alliances with regional governors, bureaucratic leaders and their fiefdoms, supportive oligarchs & other siloviki. He is very powerful but not the way he is widely portrayed in the West. Like every political leader, he has his vulnerabilities.
If he no longer protects the interests of these groups he would be quickly replaced. Putin is therefore trying to secure his legacy, including the massive financial fortune he has accumulated which he wants his kids to inherit. He also wants to stay out of prison, the ICC and Lubyanka’s replacement. His capacity to do that depends on some constitutional changes, lots of hope and friendly favours — bribes, threats, assassinations, etc,. Those around him, including potential rivals, must be made to think that their ill-gotten gains are best secured by keeping him in power.
It should not be assumed he is finessing the political system again to stay in power. He might be. But he might also be trying to dilute the powers of his successors to go after him in retirement. Suharto yielded power without losing his money or facing justice. He must surely be sick of all the plotting and looking over his shoulder for the next threat. Medvedev’s departure to a sinecure is no loss because he was increasingly unpopular and too obviously corrupt. Mishustin might appear to be a cleanskin but he should still be seen as a courtier and has performed well at increasing state revenue without further taxing the wealthy.
There are lots of known unknowns — the Russian economy, oil & gas prices, pensions, the easing of sanctions, the popularity of opponents such as Navalny, the confidence of protesters in St Petersburg and Moscow, to say nothing about unknown unknowns at home and abroad. The future is very uncertain and change can occur without warning. It is in Putin’s interests to keep everyone guessing, to keep them nervous and off guard. There is no retirement manual for autocrats. Most end up in very unhappy circumstances. He knows this. The announcement keep rivals off balance.
There must be one thing that particularly annoys Putin. Each time he meets Erdoğan he surely asks: “how have you avoided sanctions since occupying northern Cyprus in 1974 and get to stay in NATO when I am punished for occupying Crimea in 2014 which most Crimeans actually want?” Of course he must also be tempted to ask Netanyahu how he gets the US taxpayer to pay for Israel’s occupation of Palestine.
Putin effectively won the Syrian war for Assad with Iran’s help. Russia’s influence in the Middle East has rarely been greater, except when Nasser was in power in Egypt. He seems to have Trump on a tight leash, with or without kompromat, although Trump’s policies have not been kind to the Kremlin. He kept Ukraine out of the EU and still drives America’s Deep State crazy, without having to do much at all. Putin seems to have convinced Macron to break ranks with the rest of Europe and mend bridges with Russia in the hope sanctions are lifted: it may work, but might have to wait for Merkel’s departure. It is fair to say that the French are giving up on NATO, which would be Moscow’s ultimate prize, though this is largely Trump’s fault. He has somehow maintained a working relationship with Erdoğan and Xi.
He is arguably Russia’s most successful diplomat.
