Some reflections on Trump’s victory
I wonder how many Americans are waking up these mornings with buyers remorse before the orange car has even arrived at the dealership?
It is clear that Chancellor Scholz in Germany wants out. He has effectively blown up his own coalition and is unlikely to win elections next year as Trump distances the US from Europe. Far right anti-immigration nationalists will do well. Scholz knows he will take the blame for Biden’s destruction of Nordstream 2 and the doubling of energy prices in Germany, leading to de-industrialisation and intense community anger. He foolishly allowed Washington to dictate the terms of his relationship with Moscow and will pay a high electoral price for his subservience. With Trump’s election, what was all the pain for?
President Macron in France will yet again talk about a common European defence policy and the need to de-couple from the United States. And he will do precisely nothing about it.
Prime Minister Netanyahu in Israel will look for Trump’s support to formerly annexe the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza. He might get it, as he did with the Golan Heights and moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. Watching London, Canberra and other liberal democracies square the circle on this will be a joy to behold. As they fantasise about a 2 state solution and promise to recognise the state of Palestine at some unspecified time in a future which never arrives, they will be confronted by an administration in Washington which is overtly pursuing a diametrically opposite policy. The contortions will be excruciating, so bring on the popcorn! Meanwhile, the West’s support for the genocide in Gaza has also murdered and buried international humanitarian law for the foreseeable future. Great work (unless you have to rely on it one day)!
Trump’s victory is very bad news for President Zelenskyy and Ukraine. I suspect Biden will send him money and armaments again before Trump takes over in January, but after that he is probably finished. Europe will help a little but Washington is decisive. Zelenskyy faces internal rivals who may replace him in the short term: men who are equally corrupt and want a bigger slice of the aid pie. Meanwhile, the battlefront looks increasingly dire. Putin will be in a position to tell Trump at their summit that peace is imminent — on Moscow’s terms. Only laptop bombardiers like Mick Ryan and Anne Applebaum will be left urging Kyiv to fight to the last Ukrainian on behalf of the West.
If Peter Dutton thinks he can reprise Trump’s strategy here next year you won’t be able to wipe the smile from Prime Minister Albanese’s face — which is bad news because risk-averse do nothing governments don’t deserve to be re-elected.
Instead of exploiting Trump’s unpopularity in Australia — an opportunity to recalibrate the alliance, dispense with the AUKUS boondoggle and rethink the wisdom of joining Washington’s nefarious containment of our most important trading partner — the Albanese Government will pay obeisance in Trump’s court. It will be sickening to watch Wong, Albanese, Rudd (and Hockey?) as they suck up to a psychotic narcissist, rapist and pathological liar who they know despises them and everything they stand for.
Marles and the “all the way brigade” may well secure post-ministerial consultancies and seats on the boards of the merchants of death by brown-nosing their way around Washington, but the public will neither forgive nor forget. And it won’t be the result of reluctant acquiescence. These people are deeply indoctrinated true believers in the US alliance, no matter how self-interested, interventionist or cruel Washington is. As the desperate Palestinians know, addiction to violence and power is embedded in their souls. To expect any better or anything different is just naive.
As the Trump circus comes back to town, we can expect more chaos and stupidity, if on a more organised scale. They are better prepared this time but modern government is too complex for rational management, even for the bureaucratically adept.
Trump won’t hesitate to break his election promises, or claim he never made them, and that is good news — especially if they include tariffs. The other piece of good news for allies, friends and enemies alike is that Trump will be so consumed with fighting his “internal threats”, especially the inevitable push back from the military and intelligence communities (Deep State), he won’t have time to destroy Washington’s important relationships with Europe and Asia — or any other reckless foreign initiative which requires the co-ordinated co-operation of all arms of the government. And globalisation will prevent this latest strain of American isolationism. Bogging him down internally by playing to his paranoia about his “enemies within” may spare the world from some of his worst foreign policy instincts.
